Do plant-based diets protect you from grocery inflation?
Inflation in the US has increased in recent years, which has impacted many grocery staples. Some went as far as to get their own “inflation chickens” to protect themselves against the rising cost of eggs. By the end of 2022, grocery inflation was higher than overall inflation.
With grocery prices rising, do plant-based diets protect you from grocery inflation?
Change in grocery prices from 2022 to 2023
Based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, these are the percent changes in grocery prices, by item, from February 2022 to February 2023:
On average, grocery prices increased 12.46% from Feb 2022 to Feb 2023. When Eggs are excluded, grocery prices increased 10.42%.
When we separate animal-based and plant-based products, plant-based product prices increased 12.03% on average. Within the plant grocery category, grains increased an average of 14.84%, and Fruits and Veggies increased an average of 8.10%.
Fresh vegetables and fresh fruits did not exceed more than 5.3% in YoY inflation:
Animal-based groceries increased 12.98% on average. This includes meat, eggs, and dairy.
Meat and Egg products increased an average of 13.20%, however, this is skewed by the now-infamous Eggflation. Without Eggs, Meat only increased 4.76% YoY.
Dairy increased 12.65%:
Inflation by grocery categories are as follows:
Eggs - 55.4%
Grains - 14.84%
Dairy - 12.65%
Fruits and Veggies: 8.10%
Meat - 4.76%
Based on this list, all grocery categories have been impacted by inflation in varying degrees. Plant groceries win in the inflation comparison by a very slight margin.
The median and mean of plant-based grocery inflation is 11.47%.
The median of animal-based grocery inflation is 12.65%, and the mean average is 24.27%. The mean average is skewed a bit higher, because of Eggs.
Did grocery inflation inspire consumers to make any big changes in their purchasing behavior?
No, according to USDA Weekly Retail Food Sales data.
While overall grocery sales in dollars increased 5% from 2021 to 2022 (compared to 0.2% from 2020 to 2021), the percentage of spending in grocery categories remained static. Not a single grocery category changed by more than 1% from year to year:
What are some factors that impact grocery inflation?
Throwing it back to back in Econ 101, we learn that pricing is driven by supply and demand. The supply of groceries can be affected by the following:
Loss of animals (animal disease, such as Avian Flu)
Loss of crops (The Sriracha shortage)
Loss of land (natural disasters, such as flooding, drought)
Imports and exports from other countries, shipping costs (can be impacted by global politics and international relations)
Loss of animals, land, and crops are exacerbated by climate change. Animals and plants may not adapt well to environments that are changing, such as becoming hotter, and farm land is at increased risk of being lost due to seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation. Climates may become hospitable to new types of bugs, which can be harmful to crops and animals.
Grocery demand can affected by the following:
Seasonal demand (winter holiday cooking and baking)
Unforeseen demand (toilet paper at the onset of COVID-19)
Changes in consumer behavior (swapping animal milk with almond milk or other plant-based milk)
Supply at grocery stores, as far as operational managers can predict, will be dependent on historical demand and predicted trends. For the record, here is an excellent (eggcellent) resource for egg alternatives for baking.
Final note: plant-based diets
Although plant-based groceries appear to be subject to inflation at similar levels as animal-based groceries, you may consider increasing veggies and reducing meat in your diet for health benefits, and because it’s better for the planet.
From a health perspective, many studies, including this study by NIH, find that “consuming healthy plant-based foods is associated with lower all-cause mortality among US adults.”
From a planet perspective, animal-based agriculture requires large amounts of fresh water, is responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, and contributes to loss of biodiversity due to land needed to farm.
Does this mean that you need to go cold-turkey (ha) on meat entirely to make an impact?
Nah.
Start with “Meatless Mondays”. Choose just one of your daily meals (breakfast, lunch, or dinner) to be plant-based. Flip the ratio of your meat/carb/veggie at mealtime and increase veggies and carbs - depending on your nutritional needs, of course.
There isn’t a “right” roadmap to approach meat-reduction, if that’s something you want to explore. My personal philosophy is adopting manageable change is better than making big lifestyle choices that you can’t sustain, and you can introduce veggie-based food into your life in a way that works for you.
Here are some plant-based food resources to get you started:
I Can Cook Vegan by Isa Chandra Moskowitz
PlantYou by Carleigh Bodrug of PlantYou.com
Plant-Based on a Budget: Quick & Easy by Toni Okamoto
30-Minute Frugal Vegan Recipes by Melissa Copeland of TheStingyVegan.com
Data Source Notes:
Weekly Retail Food Sales - US Department of Agriculture
Non-dairy milk (oat milk, almond milk) is not specified as a subcategory, so I wasn’t able to account that granularly within the “Dairy” category. Hannah Ritchie of Our World in Data wrote a great piece “Dairy vs. plant-based milk: what are the environmental impacts?” which takes a look at the environmental impact of both kinds of milk
“Meat, eggs, and nuts” was a single category, and I separated those subcategories into new custom “Meat, Eggs” and “Nuts” categories in order to separate animal products from plant products
This data source went back as far as October 2019